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The frozen ensemble achieved holdout MAE 25.97 over 24 observations. Observed band coverage was 87.5%. Review outages and exceptional events before operational use.", "metrics": { "bias": -12.027345672999763, "mae": 25.972014235437072, "n": 24, "rmse": 31.52221346420978, "wape_percent": 2.173994225140888 }, "observations": 1344, "scenario_percent": 20.0, "season": 24, "splits": { "calibration_start": 1296, "evaluation_horizon": 24, "holdout_start": 1320, "index_convention": "zero-based, end-exclusive", "selection_origins": [ 1224, 1248, 1272 ], "selection_windows": 3 }, "step_seconds": 3600, "summary": { "capacity_exceedance_steps": null, "integrated_demand_hours": 32486.4213865309, "mean": 1353.6008911054541, "peak": 1561.3813204258815, "peak_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:00:00Z", "total_demand_steps": 32486.4213865309 }, "warnings": [ "Empirical 90% residual bands are not guaranteed coverage; future shifts can exceed them.", "Only 24 calibration samples: interval and error estimates have limited precision.", "Scenario uplift scales the forecast and its bands, not the held-out 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The frozen ensemble achieved holdout MAE 22.69 over 48 observations. Observed band coverage was 91.7%. Review outages and exceptional events before operational use.", "metrics": { "bias": -9.775079915396276, "mae": 22.68566824553248, "n": 48, "rmse": 28.624749105335976, "wape_percent": 1.9020172684022434 }, "observations": 1344, "scenario_percent": -15.0, "season": 24, "splits": { "calibration_start": 1248, "evaluation_horizon": 48, "holdout_start": 1296, "index_convention": "zero-based, end-exclusive", "selection_origins": [ 1104, 1152, 1200 ], "selection_windows": 3 }, "step_seconds": 3600, "summary": { "capacity_exceedance_steps": null, "integrated_demand_hours": 46265.56922658702, "mean": 963.8660255538962, "peak": 1133.1031453061523, "peak_timestamp": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "total_demand_steps": 46265.56922658702 }, "warnings": [ "Empirical 90% residual bands are not guaranteed coverage; future shifts can exceed them.", "Scenario uplift scales the forecast and its bands, not the held-out evaluation." ] }, "rows": [ { "base": 952.6479194034075, "lower": 768.0751295696602, 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The frozen ensemble achieved holdout MAE 22.69 over 48 observations. Observed band coverage was 91.7%. Review outages and exceptional events before operational use.", "metrics": { "bias": -9.775079915396276, "mae": 22.68566824553248, "n": 48, "rmse": 28.624749105335976, "wape_percent": 1.9020172684022434 }, "observations": 1344, "scenario_percent": 20.0, "season": 24, "splits": { "calibration_start": 1248, "evaluation_horizon": 48, "holdout_start": 1296, "index_convention": "zero-based, end-exclusive", "selection_origins": [ 1104, 1152, 1200 ], "selection_windows": 3 }, "step_seconds": 3600, "summary": { "capacity_exceedance_steps": null, "integrated_demand_hours": 65316.097731652255, "mean": 1360.7520360760886, "peak": 1599.675028667509, "peak_timestamp": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "total_demand_steps": 65316.097731652255 }, "warnings": [ "Empirical 90% residual bands are not guaranteed coverage; future shifts can exceed them.", "Scenario uplift scales the forecast and its bands, not the held-out evaluation." ] }, "rows": [ { "base": 952.6479194034075, "lower": 1084.3413593924615, 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model selection, holdout diagnostics and empirical uncertainty bands.", "name": "DemandLoom Studio", "omitted_runtime_fields": [ "elapsed_ms", "quoted_at", "calculated_at" ], "provenance": "Original synthetic fixtures generated from the project engine. No operational or personal records.", "slug": "demandloom-studio", "source_visibility": "private", "subtitle": "See demand ahead" }